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Chas Dhami

Leading at the intersection of AI, Business and Tech.
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The Amazon (AWS) factor…

December 18, 2015

This is part 4 of a series of articles on: ‘Cisco, IBM, HP: still a cloud of uncertainty?’  Here are parts one, two & three

 

Amazon Web Services (AWS)

  • Since launching a decade ago, AWS has taken the IT industry by storm. Today its a juggernaut with a $7bn run rate
  • Jeff Bezos, CEO and Founder of Amazon.com has big plans for AWS, and those don’t currently include spinning it off !
  • Amazon’s modus operandi is to: grab market share on its platforms using very low prices, build huge economies of scale; utilise new business models while innovating relentlessly 
  • Andy Jassy, Head of AWS has a clear vision : “Our goal is to have every company run all of their businesses and all of their applications on top of our technology infrastructure platform”

 

AWS Financials

  • In its Q3 2015, AWS generated $2.1bn in revenue, up 78% on the previous year, but with 25% operating margins
  • That’s still only 8% of Amazon Group, but 52% of its operating profits 
  • In Q3, Amazon Group made $79m net profit on Sales of $25.4bn (a tiny 0.3% margin)
  • It hard to tell the actual net profit margins for AWS (especially after stock based compensation).
  • We can see however, that Q3 stock based compensation for Technology & Content was 57% of the Amazon group total
  • Since this was the first time (a normally secretive AWS) provided additional information on its financial performance, we probably won’t know more details for a while….

 

IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service)

  • AWS dominates Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). It invented the idea of Public Cloud infrastructure and Pay as you go pricing
  • It was recently estimated that AWS, had more than 10 times the computing capacity of the next 14 largest infrastructure vendors combined
  • It continues to race into multiple areas: Big data, Analytics, Databases, Business Intelligence, Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Homes
  • Worldwide Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) expenditure is forecast to grow 33% to $16.5bn in 2015, and at ~29% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 2014 to 2019
  • The key players in IaaS are AWS, but also Microsoft Azure and Google Compute engine. They’re squeezing legacy tech companies like IBM & VMWare in Cloud price wars
  • In July 2015, Amazon CFO commented that the race to zero is still on because it’s part of the AWS “business model.” 

 

Now taking on Oracle

  • In fact, AWS recently focused its attention on Oracle
  • Oracle is the biggest provider of traditional databases. Its a business that's been struggling to grow as more businesses move operations to the Cloud
  • Larry Ellison, Executive Chairman and CTO of Oracle, recently declared at Oracle Openworld 2015: “We’re on our way to being the leader in SaaS.” 
  • IaaS (infrastructure as a Service) is seen as a commodity play by Oracle.
  • GE though may beg to differ, it’s planning to shift thousands of applications to AWS so that it can reduce its data centers from 34 to 4.
  • Ellison isn’t used to playing second fiddle in any market. And he's got AWS firmly in his sights, especially with the launch of AWS Aurora Cloud database offerings

 

Future looks bright

  • AWS continues to enrich is offerings adding PaaS (Platform as a Service) and SaaS (Software as a Service) capabilities.
  • Its seen as a safe choice for Enterprises for their Cloud Infrastructure needs 
  • Deutsche Bank believes AWS is forecast to reach $16bn in revenue by 2017, achieving a valuation of ~$160bn (based on a 10x multiple)
  • This could make AWS the fastest growing Enterprise Tech company ever
  • Deutsche Bank adds that AWS is forecast to hit $10bn in revenue on its 10th anniversary next year. By comparison, it took 9 years and 10 years respectively, for Google & Facebook to hit $10 billion revenues
  • While Oracle and Microsoft took 23 and 22 years, respectively, to achieve that $10 billion milestone.
  • Its thought the AWS business model originated from the need to utilise its spare processing capacity during low demand periods supporting e-commerce on Amazon.com
  • Not a bad side line business to have (we all need one of those...)

 

Accenture and AWS 

  • Accenture and AWS have also announced a joint venture to boost Cloud Services, which threatens IBM and HP on its traditional turf, with its more flexible terms. 
  • This announcement would send a shiver up any traditional Tech company’s spine…

In part 5, we’ll be looking at How Cisco is positioned in the context of ‘Cisco, IBM, HP: still cloud of uncertainty’

What are your thoughts on Amazon Web Services ?

(All views are my own)

Tags Amazon Web Services, Oracle, IaaS, IBM, VMWare, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Cloud Computing
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